3 The wider impact of the conflict
Refugees
The conflict in Ukraine has forced many people to flee their homes and livelihoods to seek safety elsewhere. As of 16 May 2023, the UNHCR has recorded 8,240,289 refugees from Ukraine now displaced across Europe [UNHCR Operational Data Portal]. This amounts to around 19% of the Ukrainian population [based on Eurostat data 2020-2021].
At this point, 174,200 Ukrainians have arrived in the UK – about 2 per cent of the total number displaced. 51,300 arrived through the “Ukraine Family Scheme” and 122,900 through the “Homes for Ukraine” government sponsorship scheme. [UK Government Transparency data]
What is the Homes for Ukraine scheme?
This UK government scheme provides a way for Ukrainians nationals with no family ties to the UK to be sponsored by individuals or organisations who can offer them a home. Hosts find someone to sponsor, most commonly through a dedicated support organisation, and together they support the potential guest in applying for a visa and travel to the UK. Individuals granted a visa through the scheme can live and work in the UK for up to three years, accessing healthcare, benefits, employment support, education and other support.
Hosts must commit to a minimum of 6 months of accommodation provision. They are entitled to a ‘thank you’ payment of £350 per month (for those hosting Ukrainians that have lived in the UK less than 12 months) or £500 (for those hosting Ukrainians that have lived in the UK longer that 12 months – whether they have lived with that host throughout that period or not). Some local authorities are supplementing these payments.
The wide take-up of the scheme has demonstrated the generosity of many ordinary people in the UK who have taken the opportunity to show hospitality to refugees, at a time when political and media rhetoric has often tried to demonise refugees. Many churches have also stepped up to offer support through language classes, drop-ins, befriending schemes and more, ‘welcoming the stranger’ as the Bible often instructs.
Ultimately, it is telling that because this safe route exists, no Ukrainian has had to attempt to cross the Channel in a small boat.
What concerns are there about the scheme?
While our Churches have welcomed the scheme and encouraged members to participate, a number of concerns about it have been raised with the government through the Churches’ partnerships with CitizensUK and participation within the Ukraine Refugee Roundtable (CTBI/CTE). These include concerns that the UK Government has not provided hosts and Ukrainians with sufficient support for long-term accommodation that will enable Ukrainians to live independently, and that the scheme is being funded from the already substantially reduced international development budget. The disparities between this scheme and other refugee schemes have also been highlighted. Support to Ukrainian refugees is often better than that provided to refugees fleeing other parts of the world, which has created an unfair sense of “more desired” refugees.
Food insecurity
Before the current conflict, Ukraine (known as ‘Europe’s breadbasket’) and Russia together exported two-thirds of the world’s wheat, but as a result of the war, production (particularly in Ukraine) and export levels have reduced. This has had global impacts.
How are grain shortages impacting?
The effect of the conflict on food insecurity is being felt globally, exacerbated by the huge price inflation which has impacted the poorest and most vulnerable in the world. In 2020, 95% of Ukraine’s wheat exports went to Asia or Africa. The World Food Programme previously purchased over 50% of its wheat from these two countries, and due to a dramatic price increase they had to stop operating in South Sudan in early July 2022. Some of the worst droughts and flooding in the region in living memory had already created a hunger crisis in East Africa, but inflation has further compounded the issues. This will have catastrophic effects across the region, where 50 million people are already experiencing acute food insecurity in countries like Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya.
Growing food insecurity exacerbated by the war in Ukraine will impact the economic and social fabric of many countries for some time even after the conflict is resolved. This points to the need for sustained international humanitarian support, not only in Ukraine, but also in other countries experiencing knock-on effects of the conflict.
UK government spending priorities
With a deepening cost of living crisis and struggling public services, some people in the UK are questioning the cost of British support for Ukraine.
How is the conflict in Ukraine contributing to the cost of living crisis in the UK?
The current cost of living crisis has numerous causes, of which the Ukraine conflict is only one [See: JPIT briefings on the cost of living crisis]. One factor has been energy prices, and while constraints on the availability of gas have been acute for some European countries and prices shot up after the invasion, they are now reducing again. In the case of oil, OPEC+ producers took a decision in April 2023 to cut production as, in their view, the price of oil was not too high but too low.
Is the UK’s support of Ukraine preventing the government from providing more help to people who are struggling in the UK?
The UK government’s support of Ukraine has resulted in significant amounts of public expenditure, including £4.6bn on military assistance over two years, £1.5bn of economic and humanitarian support, and over £1bn on refugee and housing support to date [FactCheck: how much has the UK spent on military defence, humanitarian aid and homes for Ukraine? – Channel 4 News]. To put this in context, overall UK government expenditure in 2023/2024 is expected to be £1,189bn [Office for Budgetary Responsibility, April 2023: A brief guide to the public finances - Office for Budget Responsibility], so this represents less than half of one percent of the annual total. The government has considerable scope to direct public expenditure in line with its priorities. It is not the case that the UK’s military and humanitarian support of Ukraine is preventing the government from, say, increasing Universal Credit or the Local Housing Allowance. It is possible for the UK to stand in solidarity with Ukraine without compromising the wellbeing of the poorest in our own society.